Let there be light!

 

According to the Zambian Economist, Zambia has at present a 560MW power deficit, while demand for electricity is increasing by 200MW each year. Zesco, the parastatal power company, has introduced a timetable of nation-wide rolling power-cuts, called load-shedding here, to try and conserve the water needed to generate electricity till this year’s rains come at the year-end, and hopefully replenish our diminishing water sources. Almost all of Zambia’s electricity is hydro and produced at power stations at the Kariba Dam, Kafue Gorge and Victoria Falls. These low water levels appear to be another consequence of climate change.

 

We received the Mwandi Load Shedding Schedule:

 

Monday           20-24h

Tuesday           15-20h

Wednesday     10-15h

Thursday         05-10h

Friday              24-05h

Saturday          20-24h

Sunday            15-20h

 

If you think that is bad, in Lusaka and other cities the power is off for 8 hours at a stretch. The power has just gone off now for our Tuesday stint! It should come on again hopefully around 20h.

 

There are 2 new power stations due to open this year the 120MW hydro power station at Itezhi-tezi  in August 2015, and the 150MW Maamba Coal Powered Station in November. The most they can do is cover this year’s increased demand. The Government has no financial resources to invest in this area and neighbouring countries face similar problems so there is no spare regional generating capacity that would allow imports to fill the gap. Zesco too is losing revenue from consumers, estimated at $170m, plus another $120m is needed to cover the importation of 100MW from our neighbours. This leaves a power deficit of 460MW and $290m to be found to cover losses and importation.  

 

The knock-on effect of these outages on the economy are quite serious. Water companies are now rationing town water supplies, mining companies are being asked to reduce electricity consumption by 20-30% which may lead to closures and the laying off of workers. Commercial poultry producers are having to use generators that require fuel, the price of which has just been increased, dairy plants need 5hrs to recover after an 8h power-cut and a price hike in mealie-meal is threatened, to recover losses in revenue as the time available for production has been halved. Again it is the ordinary consumer who suffers most as businesses hike prices to maintain profit levels on basic food and essential non-food items. Ecologically too increased deforestation will result, as more trees will be cut down to supply charcoal. It too has risen in price as more people buy it to cook with, instead of their now useless electric stoves. The hospital too is planning to use a generator if necessary, to supply power to life-saving machinery but the erratic and poor Government grant make the purchase of fuel to run it next to impossible. There are also resulting increases in the consumption of calor gas, paraffin, candles, matches, batteries and fuel for generators causing shortages of these commodities as well, as people look for and purchase substitutes.

 

Suggestions have been made that Zambia looks to solar and there is a project underway to produce 50MW but it is unrealistic for that to be increased by tenfold overnight to meet the 560MW deficit. There are new hydro schemes proposed at Lusiwashi and Kalugwishi and 2 thermal stations at Ndola and Batoka Gorge. These are all future projects with no current funding from either government or from foreign investors. They are also likely to lead to a further increase of our national debt, but funding this infrastructure in this way, is arguably a better use of money than using it on current expenditure.

 

Although we complain about it, the price of electricity in Zambia is one of the lowest in the region and seemingly only covers about 40% of the real cost, but electricity bills are unlikely to rise till after the elections next year. There are plans as well to break Zesco’s monopoly and split it, as other neo-liberal privitisation programmes of public utilities elsewhere in the world have done, into generation, transmission and distribution sections and run them as separate businesses and eventually to open up the power market to the ill winds of combination and consensus competition at the expense of the consumer, with which we are all too familiar in the more developed world.