Despite the world population reaching 7 billion, the slow down in the world economy and the resultant tightening of fiscal and monetary policy, it is suggested by the Economist that agricultural prices may fall in the coming year but will remain at historically high levels affecting inflation and the price we pay for putting the rice, buhobe, pasta, couscous or tatties on our plates. The Economist suggests agricultural commodity prices may fall on average by a weather-dependant 11%.
We hear of bio-fuels being grown instead of staples with accompanying climate change and concerns over greenhouse gas linked to increased and unnecessary transportation as well as worrying deficits in the supply of staples. This enthusiastic promotion of agri-business leads to a continuing decline in arable land, and not only due to increased urbanization. However, bumper harvests of wheat in Asia will ensure a plentiful supply. Fast-food is apparently making wheat almost as popular as rice in some of these emerging markets.
With us here in Zambia there will be a small fall in the price of maize, a bumper harvest last year and a complaints of a poor domestic price will see many Zambian commercial farmers moving from maize to soya, mainly to meet the demand for cooking oil, soya food and stockfeed. A domestic staple here in Zambia but elsewhere in the world, maize meets the demand for livestockfeed and ethanol to dilute petrol. This recalls Dr Johnson’s definition of oats. A grain which in England is given to horses but in Scotland supports the population and Lord Elibank’s riposte: and where will you find such (good) horses and people.
A recent report from the Scottish Agricultural College (Power in Agriculture) shows the UK imports 11% of the total amount of poultry traded - not exactly chickenfeed! America leads on beef and is the biggest wheat exporter while Japan imports most wheat. In the past North America and Europe generally controlled food trade, but this is changing. The Russian, Chinese and Indian governments want to protect their own smaller-scale and often subsistence producers by offering more stable prices.
As regards Europe the Common Agriculture Policy, the lack of raw materials for energy, fertilizer and, indeed, the shortage of land and water, make it impossible for Europe to feed itself without significant changes in productivity, efficiency and investment in new technology. This brings to the fore genetically-modified crops, and the role of the agri-business giants.
The US, Britain France and Germany still headquarter most of world's agri-business giants. There's Unilever, for instance, with the third biggest turnover of the world's food - nearly US$60bn in 2008. Kraft & Cadbury recently joined forces. There's Tesco as the world's second biggest retailer by turnover, but a long way behind Walmart, US-based owner of Asda and much besides. The Indian retail market not surprisingly is uneasy about ‘liberalising’ and opening up to such international companies.
The report also estimates that only 10 companies are responsible for more than 40% of the global retail market, four companies control 75-90% of global grain trade, seven companies control virtually all fertiliser supply, five companies have more than two-thirds of the world's agro-chemical market, and only three companies control nearly half of the proprietary seeds market.
But by being exposed to these few transnational companies for inputs and for markets, it makes farmers everywhere all the more vulnerable and dependant. A balance needs to be struck between those companies who have great lobbying power and the interests of farmer producers and of consumers. Our spending choices as consumers are important as it is we consumers that give these companies their market power, but their overwhelming power and position in the market place are such that in many cases, our power of as consumers and our choice are diminished. This too is the case with farmer-producers.
In contradistinction to the food and farming business in the more developed world the FAO and the European Union have recently announced a project aimed at helping Malawi, Vietnam and Zambia take a more "climate-smart" approach to their agriculture.
A majority of the population of these counties depend on agriculture for their livelihoods and food security. They are highly vulnerable to the impact of climate change. At the same time agriculture is a significant producer of greenhouse gases and contributes to global warming. "Climate-smart agriculture" is an approach that seeks to use promote and expand good climate-smart practice in subsistence agriculture itself as a solution to these challenges they are facing.
The project involves making changes in farming to fight against hunger and poverty and becoming more flexible in responding to climate change by reducing emissions; and increasing agriculture's potential to capture and use atmospheric carbon.
The EU/FAO project will integrate national climate change patterns with agricultural strategies to identify areas for climate-smart agriculture investments. They want to build capacity for planning and implementing climate-smart projects capable of attracting international investments and supporting crop diversity.
The problems of climate change are increasingly being felt on the ground, for example here in Mwandi the rainfall pattern this year again is irregular and erratic and the temperatures too are higher than normal. Actions to address these problems are needed, even as international negotiations continue in the search for a global climate agreement.
We are grateful too for the Guild with its support through New Hunger programme. An increasing number of patients and children in the hospital are showing signs of malnutrition as food runs out in the rural areas. The people here in Sesheke District suffer from chronic food shortage. Over one third of our children are chronically malnourished.
There are a number of NGOs who supply humanitarian assistance but there is need to address systematically local food-security. There are a number of Church-led initiatives in this area. In the meantime we continue to supply the beans, the HEPS and other foods suited to the person’s needs.
